How do you pick 10 good anglers out of a field of 200? Well, believe it or not, there are a few tried-and-true strategies for picking bass tournaments. Here in the office, we’ve been informally handicapping tournaments for years. The staff at FLWOutdoors.com has run a competition called “Pundits’ Picks” – which now can be found in the Player’s Advantage section at fantasyfishing.com – for about eight seasons. What we pundits have discovered – some better than others – is that there are definitely certain keys and trends to look for when making fishing picks – just like in fantasy football.
Of course, not all strategies are created equal. Some work better in certain situations than others, and some may not work at all. In fact, you might even have your own, better strategies for picking anglers than we do.
But if you don’t, here are a few ideas to get you started. The following is an e-mail exchange between two longtime bass-fishing pundits about how to proceed when picking tournaments.
From: Jeff Schroeder (Editor, FantasyFishing.com)
To: Gary Mortenson (Editor, FLWOutdoors.com)
Sent: Fri 12/21/2007 9:27 AM
Subject: Fantasy Fishing strategies
Hey, Morty, what’s the first thing you do when making your picks?
From: Gary Mortenson
To: Jeff Schroeder
Sent: Fri 12/21/2007 9:35 AM
Subject: Re: Fantasy Fishing strategies
Obviously, the first thing I look at is the lake. As you know, each tournament lake is different throughout a single season, but the tour often returns to the same lakes year after year. If a tournament is on, say, Arkansas’ Beaver Lake, like it is every year for the Wal-Mart Open, there’s a wealth of information to be gleaned from past tournament results there. I compare one year’s results to the next on the same lake, and I’ll often find that the same pros’ names appear atop the leaderboard for both of those tournaments or even from tournaments held there multiple years. That tells me that those pros know something specific about the best way to fish that lake. These guys don’t win by luck alone, you know.
From: Jeff Schroeder
To: Gary Mortenson
Sent: Fri 12/21/2007 9:47 AM
Subject: Re: Fantasy Fishing strategies
You’re not kidding. We’re still calling Clark Wendlandt “Mr. Beaver Lake” for the incredible track record he piled up there earlier this decade: five top-10s in five years including two wins.
From: Gary Mortenson
To: Jeff Schroeder
Sent: Fri 12/21/2007 9:52 AM
Subject: Re: Fantasy Fishing strategies
Yeah, that lake is deep and clear, and every time the FLW Tour stops there in the spring, the sight-fishermen tend to dominate with spawning bass. And Clark Wendlandt is one of the best sight-fishermen in the world.
From: Jeff Schroeder
To: Gary Mortenson
Sent: Fri 12/21/2007 10:04 AM
Subject: Re: Fantasy Fishing strategies
No doubt about that. It’s no secret that Clark’s always a solid pick at Beaver.
But you’ve got to be careful about using past results, too. As you know, one does not a trend make, so it’s not always the best idea to simply copy the top-10 list from the results of the last tournament at a given lake. In fact, it’s never a good idea to do that because, as you know, a lake’s top-10 finishers have never repeated exactly the same finishes the following year. It’s just never happened. Some pros may have top-10ed again, but never all of them. There are just too many variables.
I agree with your take on “looking at the lake” first, but what about the “new” lakes? Sometimes the FLW Tour will visit a lake for the first time or one that has a very thin track record, tournament-wise. What if you have no past tournament results on that lake to rely on – or maybe only one past tournament?
From: Gary Mortenson
To: Jeff Schroeder
Sent: Fri 12/21/2007 10:14 AM
Subject: Re: Fantasy Fishing strategies
When that’s the case, and there are no past results to look at, I’ll lean on the other measurable variables and one in particular.
It all goes back to that no-so-well-kept little secret about tournament fishing – or even just recreational fishing, for that matter: Information is everything. Obviously, the anglers who know where all the big fish are tend to catch more big fish. And who knows more about where to locate fish in a given lake than an angler who fishes that lake a lot? Which begs the next question: Who fishes a given lake more than the anglers who live near that lake? The answer, for the most part, is nobody.
That’s why I’ll look at the “local advantage,” because it plays a key role in the outcome of most fishing tournaments. The concept is simple: For every tournament lake, there are going to be some pros who are better acquainted with how to catch fish in that lake simply because they live near it and have fished it more than the others.
From: Jeff Schroeder
To: Gary Mortenson
Sent: Fri 12/21/2007 10:27 AM
Subject: Re: Fantasy Fishing strategies
Oh yeah, we see that all the time. Look at Lake Ouachita, the site of last year’s Forrest Wood Cup. Think about the picks before that one. If I’m sitting here looking at a list of anglers fishing that tournament, and two random names popped out – say, Scott Suggs of Bryant, Arkansas, and Ken Wick of Star, Idaho – I’d definitely go with the Arkansas stick there, since that’s where Ouachita is. In fact, I seem to recall I did pick Suggs for that one.
From: Gary Mortenson
To: Jeff Schroeder
Sent: Fri 12/21/2007 10:35 AM
Subject: Re: Fantasy Fishing strategies
You weren’t the only one. Lots of people picked Suggs – like me, too – and guess what? We were all right on the money. Suggs won that tournament. Not only that, if you recall, the top-30 list of finishers at Lake Ouachita was filled with his fellow Arkansans like Mark Davis, Bobby Curtis, Larry Nixon and Rob Kilby. And, believe me, that was no coincidence.
Ken Wick’s finish? Not to rub it in here, but it was 11th from last. A rough go for him, but certainly not surprising according to the local-advantage theory.
From: Jeff Schroeder
To: Gary Mortenson
Sent: Fri 12/21/2007 10:38 AM
Subject: Re: Fantasy Fishing strategies
On the other hand, give me a tournament up in the Pacific Northwest closer to Wick’s home base, say the Columbia River, and he gets my pick over Suggs any day of the week.
From: Gary Mortenson
To: Jeff Schroeder
Sent: Fri 12/21/2007 10:48 AM
Subject: Re: Fantasy Fishing strategies
No doubt. Wick’s got a solid record on the Columbia River.
Still, it’s not just a strictly “local” advantage you need to watch out for here. True “local” anglers who guide or call a tournament venue their “home” lake are often real safe bets, but you know as well as I do that a pro might be considered a “local” even if he doesn’t really live near a lake.
A lot of these guys cut their teeth in fishing tournaments on the regional circuits, cashing in by doing well on their regional lakes, say, in the Southeast, Northeast or out West. They learn a lot about lakes in their specific regions early in their careers. Then they hit the FLW Tour and lick their chops whenever the pro tour happens to stop at one of their regional lakes. In that sense, while maybe not technically a “local,” a lot of these guys gain a local’s knowledge about certain lakes that may be located even a state or two away from their home just by regularly fishing tournaments there.
From: Jeff Schroeder
To: Gary Mortenson
Sent: Fri 12/21/2007 11:00 AM
Subject: Re: Fantasy Fishing strategies
Yeah, but you’ve got to be careful about the so-called “local advantage,” too. Sometimes it’ll hurt an angler more than it helps. How many times have we seen anglers succumb to the pressure of being the local favorite? A lot. The local advantage can turn into a “local curse” in a heartbeat. Not always, but sometimes an angler who regularly cleans house on a certain lake at the BFL or Stren level has a tough time of it fishing that lake when the FLW Tour rolls into town. I can’t tell if they’re a little star-struck by the big names they’re fishing against, or they’re overburdened by too much information, or they get caught up in the expectations placed on them instead of just figuring out how to catch them that week – the results tend to be the same: The local curse can hurt an angler, especially if he’s relatively new to the FLW Tour.
So what else do you do if the local angle isn’t working out for you?
From: Gary Mortenson
To: Jeff Schroeder
Sent: Fri 12/21/2007 11:06 AM
Subject: Re: Fantasy Fishing strategies
One thing I try to do is match up a pro’s favorite technique with what’s to be expected at the upcoming tournament.
Say the tournament’s at Florida’s Lake Okeechobee. Everybody knows that flipping thick grass mats is a crucial bass-fishing technique down there, and some pros, like J.T. Kenney, are notorious for their ability to catch big fish in grass mats. Not surprisingly, Kenney – who, as you know, lives in Florida now but grew up in Maryland – has historically done very well at Okeechobee, including taking home a few wins.
From: Jeff Schroeder
To: Gary Mortenson
Sent: Fri 12/21/2007 11:14 AM
Subject: Re: Fantasy Fishing strategies
I agree, dude. Pick the flippers for the grass tournaments, and pick the casters for the tougher dock-fishing tournaments.
Sometimes a quirky thing happens, too, when a pro’s strengths will translate well to a fishery that he seemingly has no business fishing well. Florida’s Scott Martin, who grew up fishing big largemouths at Okeechobee with his dad, Roland, seems to have an unusual kinship with the smallmouth fishery of Lake Champlain way up in upstate New York. Three of his top-five finishes have come there, including a win. How do you figure that?
Well, I know two things that, when put together, seem to explain it. One, Champlain tends to be a GPS-dominated tournament; there are so many fish there that anglers must spend an inordinate amount of time finding just the good fish and then marking them into their GPS units. Two, Scott Martin is notorious for his ability to use his GPS effectively and efficiently, and he just loves fishing that way.
From: Gary Mortenson
To: Jeff Schroeder
Sent: Fri 12/21/2007 11:23 AM
Subject: Re: Fantasy Fishing strategies
Yeah, and the technique-matchup approach applies not only to pro/lake trends, but to individual tournaments, as well.
Take Luke Clausen’s win at the 2004 FLW Tour Championship, for instance. Clausen had never fished that tournament’s lake before, Alabama’s Logan Martin Lake, but he took home the half-million-dollar winner’s check. Why? Because that event was a height-of-summer, tough-fishing tournament that demanded a methodical, patient approach to catching bass. Clausen and his light-line, light-tackle, dock-skipping technique just translated better to the conditions than everyone else who might have been trying to muscle them in with reaction baits and heavier tackle. If you know that Clausen is a Western pro raised on light-tackle techniques like drop-shotting and small jigheads, you could infer – even if he’s never fished there before – that he might do well at a place like Logan Martin in the summer, which can be tougher fishing.
From: Jeff Schroeder
To: Gary Mortenson
Sent: Fri 12/21/2007 11:30 AM
Subject: Re: Fantasy Fishing strategies
Yeah, but all this technique/local-advantage/know-your-lakes mumbo-jumbo is making my head spin, dude. Sometimes you just gotta go with the hot hand.
Remember Rick Clunn’s run way back in 2000? The guy almost won three FLW events in a row. That’s almost unheard of in tournament fishing. Needless to say, he would have made my picks – no matter where the tournament was – if we had fantasy fishing back then.
From that perspective, it’s usually not a bad idea to poke around the top of the FLW Tour standings list when trying to come up with some picks. Those anglers, by definition of leading the points race, are having a good year, in general.
From: Gary Mortenson
To: Jeff Schroeder
Sent: Fri 12/21/2007 11:37 AM
Subject: Re: Fantasy Fishing strategies
No doubt, and that approach might be the biggest help of all. Who’s not going to pick Shinichi Fukae for tournament No. 4 after he’s finished third, 15th and seventh in the first three? The people who don’t want to win in fantasy fishing, that’s who.
But to take that one step further, don’t just look for the immediately hot hands. Look for the consistently good pros, too – the career winners. There are some guys out there who, if you put him in your lineup, won’t cause you to lose any sleep at all knowing they’re in there. They’re just solid career pro anglers who have a consistent track record, and they pretty much anchor any list of picks I make. Look back at the pro’s record: If he or she has lots of top-10 finishes going back five, 10 years or more, plus high finishes in the standings year after year, you know you’ve probably got a keeper. A bunch of names come to mind: Fukae could be considered one. Wendlandt, too. And how about Larry Nixon?
From: Jeff Schroeder
To: Gary Mortenson
Sent: Fri 12/21/2007 11:48 AM
Subject: Re: Fantasy Fishing strategies
Yup, all three of those guys make one picks list after another, no matter where the tournament is. But they’re not the only ones, either. Besides that, there are plenty of young guns out there looking to dethrone the veterans. We’ll be saying the same things about them in 10 years’ time. I mean , look at Bryan Thrift. Or Ott Defoe.
That reminds me of the “sneaky pick.” Sometimes there are anglers who maybe don’t regularly fish the FLW Tour but who quietly dominate tournaments on certain regional lakes at the BFL or Stren Series levels. Then when the FLW Tour comes to town, they get into the tournament and put up big numbers against the big boys. A couple of names immediately come to mind here, like Thomas LaVictoire anywhere in upstate New York and David Young at Kentucky Lake. And of course, the Lake Erie/Detroit River/Lake St. Clair waterway is renowned as a place where locals tend to dominate.
From: Gary Mortenson
To: Jeff Schroeder
Sent: Fri 12/21/2007 12:07 PM
Subject: Re: Fantasy Fishing strategies
Whoa there, soldier. Don’t cough up any picks for the Detroit River just yet: It’s on the schedule for this season.
One thing we haven’t really touched on is the east vs. west dynamic that plays out on tour. Historically, bass tournament fishing has been a predominantly Eastern pursuit, particularly in the American Southeast. That’s where the sport started, and in fact, that’s where the bulk of the big tournaments are held, including on this year’s FLW Tour. To that end, the sport’s top names tend to come from places like Texas, Alabama, Kentucky, Tennessee, Florida and elsewhere below the Mason-Dixon Line. But the West has a strong bass-fishing community, too, and in recent years they’ve been coming on strong at the elite level. Just look at the Forrest Wood Cup: Two of the last four champions have come from the West – Luke Clausen and Brent Ehrler – and they won them on lakes in the Southeast, far away from home. So, to put it bluntly, it’s not unusual to see the Western pros come out east and show them how it’s done. And they’re mighty proud of it, too. It seems like every tournament there’s at least one or two Californians or Arizonans sniffing around the top 10 somewhere, seemingly out of nowhere. I like to call this the “Western factor,” and it’s come into play for the picks more than once.
From: Jeff Schroeder
To: Gary Mortenson
Sent: Fri 12/21/2007 12:15 PM
Subject: Re: Fantasy Fishing strategies
To go you one further, you can’t forget to turn your attention even farther west than California. By that I mean as far west as the Far East. Many of the Japanese pros are ridiculously thorough in their practice routines, and they, too, are increasingly frequent visitors to the top-10 roundtable, if not the winner’s circle. Fukae’s obviously the heavy hitter here; he won the AOY (FLW Tour Angler of the Year). But there are also a handful of others, like Takahiro Omori, Morizo Shimizu and Katsutoshi Furusawa, who either have already been known to make their mark on a tournament or are poised to break out.
From: Gary Mortenson
To: Jeff Schroeder
Sent: Fri 12/21/2007 12:18 PM
Subject: Re: Fantasy Fishing strategies
For sure, never overlook the Japanese pros. Those guys are solid, and they only look to be getting better.
Well, that’s about all I got for strategies this morning. You hungry?
From: Jeff Schroeder
To: Gary Mortenson
Sent: Fri 12/21/2007 12:19 PM
Subject: Re: Fantasy Fishing strategies
Famished. Let’s go eat.