Fantasy blog: Table Rock regrets
Carlson’s last-minute adjustments prove costly
Let me start by issuing a sincere apology to those fantasy players who took my last-minute “advice.” Tuesday morning, the day before the Table Rock tournament, I spoke with Brent Ehrler at a National Guard team photo shoot. In frigid 26-degree weather, I informed Ehrler he was my pick to win. With his lips quivering and his body shaking, he proceeded to look at me like I was crazy.
Having covered him for years, I’ve always known Ehrler as a straight shooter. So when he told me he hadn’t caught more than two keepers during any of the three practice days I believed him. But more importantly, his body language told me he wasn’t confident. With this information in hand, I removed him and a handful of other anglers from my fantasy roster. Subsequently when he came to the scales the next day with over 16 pounds I was a little taken aback.
As it turned out, Ehrler was telling the truth. He caught only one bass from this magic White River area during practice. Co-angler Brandon Hunter also caught one, but that was it – two fish from the same spot that coughed up over 60 pounds during the four-day tournament. Clearly, Ehrler didn’t fully grasp what he was on, which he later admitted.
In hindsight, I’m not mad at Ehrler or the fact that I missed out on 5,000 points (2,500 top 10 points, 2,500 winner points). I’m just a little bitter and I wish I’d kept my mouth shut Tuesday. If I learned anything from this ordeal, it’s that the pros aren’t the best predictors of their own success. While Ehrler was greatly underestimating his chances, Scott Suggs thought he was flat-out on them. While Suggs had another good tournament out deep, he mistakenly thought his pattern was as strong as last year.
In conclusion, I had Ehrler picked for 21 days and 20-some hours only to remove him right before the deadline. And all I’m left with is a spinning head and a bunch of “what if” questions. In addition to Ehrler, I also removed Bryan Thrift, Scott Canterbury and Justin Lucas. Outside of Ehrler, Thrift did the best – taking fourth. Their replacements did OK. Mark Rose and Suggs made the top 10 and Dave Lefebre and Dion Hibdon weren’t too far behind. But they won’t soon make me forget about Ehrler.
Again, I apologize to those who heeded my advice. No one feels worse about it than I do. Until the Lake Norman event arrives, I’ll be singing the fantasy blues.