OSAGE BEACH, Mo.– Taking off under gorgeous late summer conditions after a short fog delay, the Toyota Series Presented by Phoenix Boats Plains Division anglers will finish the season out at Lake of the Ozarks. The last regular-season event for the Toyota Series is presented by Suzuki Marine, and there will be a lot on the line in this one between points in the Plains Division and Wild Card Division as well as the hefty payouts for the actual event.

Though the event isn’t lacking in importance, expectations for the fishing are not sky high. Anglers should have good conditions for all three days, including the chance for some rain on Friday, but by most accounts, the fall bite hasn’t really turned on. Still, Lake of the Ozarks is a great playing field, and we should see some pretty solid weights, even if the anglers need to scratch and claw to come by them.

Setting up the event

A well-trod tournament fishery, Lake of the Ozarks has thousands of docks, rocks, brush and some offshore structure. At certain times of the year, the lake puts out huge weights, but the fall can be a little grimy.

“Things might change a little bit, but it never changes much in September,” said local Brock Reinkemeyer. “Everybody’s like, ‘Oh, it’s gonna turn on, it’s gonna turn on,’ and it never really does in September and October. Whenever you start seeing your 20-pound bags again, it’ll be like November, December.”

Last year, Travis Harriman won the September Toyota Series event with a 42-pound, 12-ounce total, catching two big bags and only one fish on the last day. He was followed by a number of other anglers in the low 40s, which is under a 15-pound daily average. Notably, the Bassmaster Open held shortly before took a lot more weight to win – Kyle Patrick won with 53-11, and the top six anglers all weighed more than 46 pounds. So, it’s anyone’s guess what this year has to offer.

“There are a lot of things in play in September,” Michael Harlin said. “It really opens up the tacklebox and lets guys fish to their strengths. I expect to see some guys out fishing deep and others up super shallow. They’ll be catching them on reaction baits and bottom baits the same – basically just fall fishing 101.”

Reinkemeyer reckons that 16 pounds a day could earn the win, and Harlin is on that same track.

“Most likely there will be some big bags caught at least one or two days of the tournament, and I anticipate those big bags will be caught up shallow, whether it’s throwing topwater or flipping boat docks,” Harlin said. “I think it’s going to take anywhere between 45 to 47 pounds to win the event.

“That isn’t huge weight, but that’s typical here for this time of year,” Harlin continued. “I figure the winning guy will have to catch at least one 17- to 20-pound bag or a couple 17-pound bags to take home the win.”

Reinkemeyer notes that the fish are very spread out, but barring some magic spot, he thinks mixing in a deep deal or two will be key.

“They kind of get everywhere,” he said. “Last year, people caught them deep, and then they caught them flipping docks, too. But I think to be consistent you’ve got to have some deep fish. I think it’s going to be structure stuff; we don’t really catch them out there Damiki rigging and stuff like that.”

One wild card is the weather – Thursday should be nice and sunny, but there’s some rain and slightly cooler temperatures in the forecast for Friday and Saturday. In theory, that could open up a topwater bite or some other shallow pattern.

“Yesterday, it was overcast, and I threw some topwater around and caught three keepers on a Spook,” Reinkemeyer said. “So, that was kinda interesting. But I’d be surprised if it wasn’t won on a jig.”

Fishing Clash Angler of the Year will go down to the wire

While points will be paramount for many anglers in this event, the race for Fishing Clash Angler of the Year in the Plains Division is a hot one. Leading the way, Jake Lawrence has 519 points and finished first and second in the two preceding events. In second place with 516 points, Jordan Hartman finished third twice.

The first two events of the division, on Grand Lake and Kentucky Lake, were both prespawn and spawn events. Now, with a decidedly summer or early fall vibe, the race could be primed for a shakeup.

“I’m getting some bites and I’ve caught some decent fish,” Hartman said. “I think 15 or 16 pounds a day will be good. I’d like to win AOY, but if I go out to catch fish and do what I’m supposed to do, I’ll be fine. I’m not really thinking about it much — if it’s supposed to happen, it’ll happen.”

Hartman said that he fishes to be at the top of the field regardless, so he’s not contemplating laying up for a limit.

“I’d love to win (AOY), but I’m not going to fish any different because of it,” he said. “I always try to fish to win; I’ll do the winning pattern for seven or eight bites a day. You could throw an underspin on a wave break right now and catch 50 fish a day, but only seven of them might be keepers.”

Lawrence has had a stupendous year across every circuit he’s fished and nearly won AOY in the Tackle Warehouse Invitationals. But after mechanical issues hampered his start to practice, the Tennessee pro is a little off balance.

“Here right now, I just know I’m not doing the right thing, because I’m not even seeing good ones,” Lawrence said. “I just don’t have that feeling that I just need to figure out the bait or something. I don’t feel like I’m even around them. I hate to say this, but I’m not used to it.”

That means he may not have the same “win or bust” mentality he usually shares with Hartman.

“You know how I like to feel,” Lawrence said. “I’ll run around and try to win. But this one, as tough as it is, I’m almost in survival mode of, like, let’s make sure you can catch 12 or 13 pounds if that’s possible and then go from there.”

Waiting in the wings should the leaders falter, Ethan Fields has 508 points on the season. Running a fairly distant fourth, Reinkemeyer has 488 points to his credit, but he does have the local advantage. One thing is for sure, this looks like a race that will go into the weekend.

On the Strike King co-angler side, Todd Adamitis has 515 points, which is a solid margin ahead of Dennis Young with 494. But, points races are historically dynamic for co-anglers, so there’s room for drama on that side of things as well.