Pundits’ Picks
Although I turned in a sub-par performance by my own standards during the Beaver Lake Conseco Challenge, the beauty of it all was that I still managed to pummel the other three pundits without even breaking a sweat. What that says about us collectively is open for debate. However, this much I do know: After four tournaments, I have logged two first-place finishes, increased my overall lead in the year-end standings race and have officially achieved frontrunner status for the 2002 Prognosticator-of-the-Year title. In short, if you’re reading this column, don’t waste your time analyzing the latest picks of Washburn, Newell and Schroeder because, in the end, they will get you nowhere.
Now, let’s move onto bigger and better things. As we all know, there is very little FLW history at Old Hickory which means that this tournament will be very difficult to pick. However, I do have some advice for the upcoming Conseco Challenge: When in doubt, go with the studs. Personally, I’m finished trying to play the “insider game” of picking the local favorites. You know the drill, you select a middle-of-the-road angler just because he or she hails from Lake X. The logic is that these anglers have a distinct advantage because they know all of the “secret” spots, habitat and structure of Lake X as well as how the fish will react in various weather conditions. Trust me, this is a futile effort. In fact, every time I’ve tried to go with the “local connection,” that angler has finished in something like 139th place. And we all know that one 139th-place finish is enough to mess up your entire Conseco Challenge. So, without further delay, here is this tourney’s winning ticket.
– Gary
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Wal-Mart FLW Tour stop #5
Old Hickory Lake, Gallatin, Tenn.
May 15-18
Gary Mortenson
Editor, FLWOutdoors.com
Last tournament score (Beaver Lake): 806
Overall score: 3,391
1) Aaron Martens. This is one of the few FLW anglers who never seems to disappoint. No matter what the water levels, conditions or location, Martens is always sniffing around the top-20. In fact, had he not missed the Lake Ouachita event, he would be one of the frontrunners for Angler of the Year. His finishes in 2002 are as follows: 30th, second and 12th.
2) Kevin VanDam. For many of the same reasons I’ve listed above, VanDam needs to be on your list. In addition, VanDam is looking for his very first FLW win. He’s hungry and he is in good position to grab the Angler-of-the-Year title for the second consecutive season with a good performance at Old Hickory. Want another reason? He’s arguably the best angler in the world right now. If that still isn’t enough to put him in your top six, consider how ridiculous you’d feel if you leave VanDam off your list and he finally grabs that elusive first-place finish. Personally, I’m not willing to risk that humiliation.
3) Clark Wendlandt. This pick is primarily suited to counter Rob Newell as I know full well he will be putting Wendlandt on his own list. And, as Rob is currently the greatest threat to my 2002 Prognosticator-of-the-Year title, I can’t let him have any advantage. However, there are other important reasons to select “Mr. Beaver Lake” for this Conseco Challenge. For starters, the Dallas Stars – Wendlandt’s favorite hockey team – did not qualify for the NHL playoffs, which means that he will be concentrating full-time on fishing. Secondly, Wendlandt has been fishing extraordinarily well this year and is capable of winning any tournament he fishes. And most importantly, he’s never going to come in 139th place.
4) David Dudley. This guy is one intense competitor. As he told me once, “I don’t care what it is, if we’re both in a gum-chewing contest right now, I’d try to win.” Although I never took him up on his offer, I can tell you that Dudley is not called the Manteo Machine for nothing. For starters, I think he’s won close to a billion dollars just in the 2002 fishing season alone. Okay, so he hasn’t quite won that much, but you get the point. Realistically speaking, Dudley has a penchant for hanging around the top-20 and if he doesn’t make the cut, he usually isn’t that far behind. Plus, he told me that he’s already spent/donated most of the $700,000 he received for winning the 2002 Ranger M1 event. Consequently, he is going to need a good showing just to pay the rent.
5) Jay Yelas. I’m not as familiar with Yelas as I am of some of the other anglers on the tour. However, even someone with very little fishing knowledge knows that Yelas is going to be competitive at every tournament. Unfortunately, I keep getting Yelas mixed up with Dean Rojas – another member of Team Yamaha. Not that that is a bad thing because they’re both great anglers. The only problem is that when I pick Yelas, Rojas does better. And when I pick Rojas, Yelas does better. However, this time around I’m taking no chances.
6) Dean Rojas. See Jay Yelas. Or Dean Rojas.
Jeff Schroeder
Editor, FLWOutdoors.com
Last tournament score: 795
Overall score: 3,077
1) Aaron Martens. Martens is in 32nd place in the standings – this after he skipped the Ouachita tournament so he could (ho-hum) go and win the last B.A.S.S. Western Open. I’m a huge Martens fan – and not just because the guy goes on hundred-mile walkabouts in the Sierra Madres. They say he is the king of the drop-shot, but his arsenal is so much more. Look at his FLW finishes this year: 30th – Okeechobee, second – Wheeler, 12th – Beaver Lake. They’re all completely different fisheries. His technique is one of the most well-rounded on tour and Martens is in the top 20 percent of FLW pros this year despite losing a whole mess of points from Ouachita. He’s on the brink of his first major win.
2) Larry Nixon. At Old Hickory, beware the Sultan of Smallmouth. Sure, the pros will be catching plenty of big ol’ bucketmouths in Nashville. But guess what species broke three lake records at Old Hickory just this spring. Smallmouth. Catching the feisty little rascals will be key to winning this tournament, and who loves them more than the General?
3) Kevin VanDam. Also a smallmouth fiend, as well as the natural-born enemy of just about anything that swims. VanDam’s my anchor, and he’s given me no reason whatsoever to cut the line yet. He snags third at Old Hickory.
4) Jay Yelas. The question: Which Yamaha pro is going to score the best at Old Hickory? There’s always one in contention. At Okeechobee it was Yelas. At Wheeler it was Alton Jones. At Ouachita it was Yelas again. At Beaver it was Dean Rojas. For all I know, it could be Gary Yamamoto’s turn, but for wagering purposes my money’s on Yelas for another strong showing.
5) Wesley Strader. If we had an Angler-of-the-Year award for the entire FLW Outdoors circuit, Strader wins the 2002 trophy hands down. He’s been all over the leaderboard in just about every FLW, EverStart and M1 tourney he’s entered this year, including the win at Ouachita. He continues the trend in Tennessee, which also just happens to be his home state.
6) Clark Wendlandt. He told me not to pick him this tournament because, I suspect, he’s on that shifty Rob Newell’s payroll. No matter. Wendlandt is money at any tourney, and he’s going to lead me to victory this go-round whether he (and Rob) like it or not.
Rob Newell
Contributing Editor, FLW Outdoors
Last tournament score: 751
Overall score: 3,327
(A fellow pundit, who shall remain unnamed, recently accused me of showing favoritism towards Clark Wendlandt. This particular pundit commented that, given the opportunity, I would “lick Mr. Wendlandt’s shoes.” Well, I would now formally like to wager a “shoe licking” with this particular pundit on the Old Hickory picks. Loser licks – and my Nikes are pretty dirty, Jeff.)
1) Clark Wendlandt. Once again, I would like to demonstrate my “favoritism” for Wendlandt and pick him for the number-one spot at Old Hickory. With Wendlandt as the victor, my free shoe cleaning should be all the more unpalatable for the licker.
2) Kevin VanDam. “VanDam” and “second,” the two are virtually synonymous on the FLW Tour.
3) Craig Powers. Other than Bill Dance, Powers is the first angler that comes to my mind when Tennessee is mentioned. He knows Tennessee water, and the players are now coming to his backyard.
4) Randy Blaukat. Blaukat is a bit of an underground legend on Old Hickory – literally. Several years ago, in a B.A.S.S. event, Randy Blaukat and Gary Klein spent two days digging their way into a backwater pond on Old Hickory. Both posted top-20 finishes from the exhausting effort.
5) Gary Klein. Just in case they decide to dig again, I am cashing in on both anglers for double points.
6) Gerald Swindle. I am picking Swindle simply because I sincerely hope that he has gotten his head out of … the clouds and is back in Swindle form. Swindle has been in a slump lately. I am looking for him to get back on the right foot at Old Hickory.
Dave Washburn
Executive Editor, FLW Outdoors
Last tournament score: 692
Overall score: 3,092
1) Kevin VanDam. Picking the top six anglers each tournament is starting to be a lot like my golf game. The more I play, the worse I get. That said, for my No. 1 pick, I’m going with a pro whose time for victory has come. VanDam is quite simply one of the best in the business. He has four second-place finishes, so it’s time for a breakthrough win. Smallmouth bass may be an overlooked commodity in Old Hickory, but if there is one angler who can catch them, it’s this Chevy pro.
2) Clark Wendlandt. As predicted, the Team Kellogg’s pro came through for me on Beaver Lake. His fourth-place finish made Wendlandt my best pick, so I’m banking on him again. The guy is truly remarkable. He has more top-10 finishes (15) than anyone on tour, and he has made the semifinal cut in all but one tournament this season. Remember my rule: Always pick Wendlandt. Like me, you will be glad you did.
3) Aaron Martens. Martens was a solid pick on Lake Okeechobee and Wheeler Lake. In fact, he finished in the top 30 in every tournament he fished this year, and I expect him to make another run at the top spot on Old Hickory. Martens is a drop-shot artist, but he can fish shallow, too. There’s no place for bass to hide when Martens is in town.
4) Wesley Strader. He has already earned two top-10 finishes this season, including a win on Lake Ouachita. The Fujifilm pro is also having a banner year in the EverStart Series with two top-10 performances. He is coming off a fifth-place EverStart Series finish on Kentucky Lake and returning to his home state. Watch for him to come through with another solid finish.
5) David Dudley. With two semifinal-round appearances and a 23rd-place finish this season, it would be hard to bet against this Castrol pro. Dudley may not win, but he certainly won’t hurt me either. And I could use the points. Once again, I believe he is on a role that isn’t going to stop anytime soon.
6) Rusty Rust. Here’s my wildcard. Rust is a relatively untested newcomer to the Wal-Mart FLW Tour. His highest finish to date is 17th, and that was at the season opener on Lake Okeechobee. The Yamaha pro lives just 20 minutes from Old Hickory, however, and he knows the lake like the back of his hand. If there is a hometown favorite, it’s Rust.
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