OSAGE BEACH, Mo. – The Toyota Series Presented by Phoenix Boats Plains Division always attracts a strong group of competitors, and this year is no different – the opener at Lake of the Ozarks is loaded with quality talent. They’re also taking on the big lake under some unique conditions – though the weather has largely been excellent this week and will be for the tournament, a recent cold snap made the start of practice a real adventure. So, throughout practice, anglers have had to navigate a lake that is literally partially frozen, and though the ice is retreating by the minute, the winner of this one will really earn it.
Setting up the conditions
This week, there’s quite a bit of ice to be found on the lake, on the upper end of it and in the pockets. Though the water is clear, it’s very cold, and ice melt and recent snow melt are doing anglers no favors.
“I think that this past weekend, it was almost frozen over,” Cole Breeden said. “And, actually, last night, even the main lake froze over with a real thin layer, but it burns off pretty quick. So right now, there are chunks of ice floating everywhere because it’s starting to break up from the pockets and stuff.
“Right now on the lower end of the lake, the back one-third or back one-fourth of pretty much every creek is frozen, then all the backs of the pockets,” Breeden said. “And then up lake, two-thirds to three-fourths of the creek is frozen across. So, you can’t really get to any of that further back secondary stuff that a lot of guys fish this time of year.”
Because there’s so much ice still present in the shallower, narrower parts of the lake, anglers are more concentrated than is usual for the gigantic fishery. And, there’s a real chance that the competitors will be able to access fish in totally new water by the end of the event.
“It went from zero to 70 [degrees] in one week,” Dennis Berhorst said. “A week ago, we were below zero for two or three mornings in a row, and now we’re at 47 in the morning, 50 right now. So, a big, big difference, big change in seven days.
“A lot of the stuff that I fish is under ice,” said the veteran Ozarks angler. “I’ve not been able to fish where I want to fish for the last three days. I checked some of the places on Monday, and there’s 2 1/2 inches of ice. So, that’s not going to open up. Wind is a major factor in breaking that ice up, and the wind’s not blowing. It’s supposed to blow a little bit today, 10 miles an hour, but I’m not expecting a lot of that stuff to be open by tournament morning.”
Harlin lapped the field the last time
Generally speaking, there isn’t a lot of precedent for tournaments taking place in ice-out conditions. Up north, where there is regularly ice, the seasons are often not open right when the lakes are thawing. And, as far as tournaments in the south go, there just are only so many times when something is actually scheduled when ice could be a factor.
However, it’s not unheard of – in 2021, Michael Harlin won the Toyota Series event held in early March when Lake of the Ozarks was coming out of a similarly deep freeze. Back then, it was an absolute rout – Harlin led with 21-11 on Day 1 and didn’t let off the gas, weighing 62-1 over three days. In second, Andy Newcomb managed 46-12, which put him more than 15 pounds back of Harlin’s pace.
While Lake of the Ozarks can produce some really big weights, it’s not unusual for anglers to come in shy of a limit some times of the year. In ’21, three of the Top 10 failed to limit at least one day, and more than 20 pros managed to earn checks while missing a limit at least once.
This time, all reports are that the fishing is tougher than it was in 2021.
“It is very similar conditions,” Harlin said. “It seems like there’s a lot more dead shad floating around this time around. But, it’s tougher for me. I have a hard time believing somebody catches 20 pounds a day this week. It’s definitely possible, you know, if the right guy gets the right bites every day, but it’s pretty tough, man.
“It seems like the lake’s been waking up a little bit more every day,” he said. “I mean, they could bite pretty good, but it’s been really slow. The fish are really grouped up, and they’re really hard to get to bite, especially big ones. I haven’t caught anything over 3 pounds this week.”
Plenty to overcome for the win
While almost nobody in the event expects the fishing to be good, at the end of the day, somebody has to win. And, if you can pull off the win in the ice bowl, you’ll have done something pretty remarkable. Among the issues this week is the fact that a major shad kill has given the bass a nearly unlimited supply of extremely accessible snacks.
“We’ve had a large, one of the largest I’ve seen in years, shad kill,” Berhorst said. “There are gizzard shad in some places so thick you can walk across them. I’m talking 6-, 8-, 9-inch gizzards. And then also you’ve got what people call the threadfin, which are actually baby gizzards. And those baby gizzards are dying all over the place too.
“I think a big key is to get away from it,” Berhorst said. “Sometimes when you have a small shad kill, the fish around it are catchable. But when you’ve got this big of a shad kill, it’s hard to get a bite around.”
With water temperatures in the upper 30s and maybe the low 40s by the end of the event, the bass are sluggish and behaving oddly.
“They’re not wanting to bite,” Harlin said. “And they’re so grouped up that it seems like there’s no fish anywhere if you’re not around them. Then you find them and there’s a ton, and they literally are impossible to get to bite. They look like crappie, and you’ll see them come up on your stuff, but it’s hard to get them to actually eat it.”
While umbrella rigs and minnows are often the modern solution for wintertime bass, it sounds like we could be in for a classic jerkbait tournament.
“If you get your A-rig down there, it could still be, you know, 10 feet away from them at the closest, and they’re not going to be willing to really travel that far,” Breeden said. “So, that’s kind of a big problem. They’re just so slow that when they do follow it, they just never catch up. I mean, even when you throw light stuff at them, they just don’t move quick enough.”
According to Berhorst, jerkbaits tournaments have been slim pickings since the advent of the umbrella rig, but this could be the week.
“There will be some caught on a rig,” he said. “You know, there comes a time where they will not chase that thing. I think the major player is going to be a jerkbait, just because you can leave that thing setting. Before the Alabama rig, the only thing we had was a jerkbait. That’s all we caught them on. I think it’s going to be a real player in this tournament because of how you can leave it set, stop it, and leave it set. These fish are very, very lethargic right now.”
Harlin suspects the winner will end up with 47 or 48 pounds, which averages out to better than 15 pounds a day – not too bad for whoever the fortunate winner is.
“Weights will be really tough,” Harlin said. “A lot of people, including myself, think it’s a lot tougher than it was [in 2021].”
“I still think some of the some of these younger guys that are really good with their electronics, not saying I’m not good with them, but I’m not as good as what they are, but, some of these young guys, I think they’ll do okay,” Berhorst said. “For me, right now, I’m just hoping I catch some, get some points and move on to the next one.”
So, stay tuned for what is sure to be a one-of-a-kind event.