GUNTERSVILLE, Ala. — The first fishery of the 2026 Bass Pro Tour season needs no introduction to bass fishing fans. Legendary Lake Guntersville has served as the playing field for 147 MLF/FLW events through the years across every level of competition, not to mention three Bassmaster Classics and, most recently, last year’s REDCREST. Next up is B&W Trailer Hitches Stage 1 Presented by Mercury, set for Jan. 15-18.
However, never in its storied history has Guntersville hosted a national-level event this early in the calendar. Combined with the Bass Pro Tour’s every-fish-counts format and forward-facing sonar limitations, local pros are expecting a dynamic event that looks different than past Guntersville derbies.
What to expect in winter
Modern technology has changed wintertime fishing a lot in recent years. Top tours rarely, if ever, have started seasons north of Florida or Texas, as this was a time of year anglers had to grind to get five bites a day. But the past few winters, forward-facing sonar and the ability to target schools of suspended, bait-chasing bass has made winter one of the most productive times of year in many Southern fisheries.
Guntersville resident Justin Lucas expects Stage 1 to fall somewhere between those two extremes. There are still lots of bass chasing bait, but they’ve become tougher to fool after being pressured throughout the past couple winters. And while there are always fish to be found shallow on Guntersville, getting them to bite can be hit or miss this time of year.
“I do think, from what I saw the last two or three winters, it seemed to be a little bit better,” Lucas said. “There seems to be a lot more pressure now than there has been the past two or three years. I don’t think it’ll line up to be as good of a tournament as it was two or three years ago, but it’s still going to be a great event.”
Another complicating factor is the mild winter the South has experienced so far. Fellow West Coast native turned Guntersville transplant Jacob Wall found 54-degree water on a recent outing on Nickajack Lake, just above Guntersville on the Tennessee River.
On one hand, that could keep the shallow bass more active than they’d normally be in January. Then again, the lack of a real cold snap means bass will be less concentrated than usual. Plus, the water is abnormally clear, and there’s not much current flowing through the system, which could make the fish finicky.
“With the water being clear like it is, I don’t know how catchable those super shallow fish in that grass are going to be, because they’re going to be able to see your bait coming from a long ways away, and obviously Guntersville fish get a lot of pressure already,” Wall explained.
The good news is that, while anglers might not be reeling in bass at a breakneck pace, the average size should be strong. Despite a constant barrage of pressure, Guntersville’s bass population has only gotten healthier in recent years. Lucas and Wall expect to see several bass over 6 pounds hit SCORETRACKER®, with the potential for a few 7- and 8-pounders to show up.
“This time of the year, they’re at their fattest,” Wall said. “They’re prespawn, they’re feeding up on bait, their eyes are popping out of their head. They’re full of food and fat, especially those ones that are out there chasing those shad and stuff; those fish are about ready to explode. A 3-pounder most of the year is going to weigh 4 this time of year.”
FFS will be big, but not the only game in town
At last year’s Bass Pro Tour opener on Lake Conroe, the top performers all stacked up big weights during their one allotted period with forward-facing sonar each day, then largely transitioned to targeting submerged vegetation. Wall expects this event to unfold similarly. Both he and Lucas predicted that keeping pace during their period with forward-facing sonar will be a near must to contend for the win, although pros will need to find a productive secondary tactic, too.
“I think you’re definitely going to have to maximize your ‘Scope period,” Lucas said. “If you don’t, you’re going to have a very long and stressful day. You gotta be able to stay in the hunt, at least, and just not get too far behind the 8 ball.”
That said, Wall doesn’t expect to see catch rates as rapid as at Conroe, where it was common for anglers to top 40 pounds in a single period. Eventual winner Justin Cooper amassed more than 72 pounds during his forward-facing sonar period on Day 2. Wall pegged 30 pounds as a good period with forward-facing sonar on Guntersville. Thus, the gap shouldn’t be too big to bridge if an angler finds a consistent bite with traditional tactics.
“I would say your rate of catch is going to be better in your forward-facing period,” Wall said. “If you’re not taking advantage of that, then you’re probably going to get left behind. Unless you’re on a better-than-average winding bite. If you get on a better-than-average deal doing that, you might be able to keep pace. You might not be able to win doing that, but you can probably keep pace and make the Knockout Round.”
No surprise, Lucas and Wall expect jighead minnows to dominate when anglers utilize forward-facing sonar. The rest of the time, they expect bladed jigs, lipless crankbaits, flat-sided plugs and jerkbaits to be popular tools, with anglers keying on the lake’s ample eelgrass and hydrilla.
“You’re probably going to see a lot of red – a lot of fire craws and red-colored stuff, between the ChatterBaits and the crankbaits,” Wall said. “That red is pretty dominant on Guntersville in the wintertime.”
Another run up the river?
There’s one variable that could shake up all of Lucas’ and Wall’s predictions – the Nickajack Dam. At REDCREST last spring, both winner Dustin Connell and runner-up Wesley Strader bucked Guntersville tradition by running about 70 miles to the upper end of the fishery, with Connell plying the tailrace beneath the dam and Strader fishing slightly downriver, both of them catching a mixture of species.
Lucas and Wall expect to see a few anglers try to replicate their success in this event, and Lucas said, “It wouldn’t surprise me if it gets won up there again.”
“I think someone like Connell might try that, because he’s comfortable fishing up there; he’s done that in the past few events,” Wall said. “As far as the river goes, this is the time of year that I know you can catch some pretty good smallmouth.”
Whatever tactic or combination thereof anglers employ, Wall predicted that it will take a two-day total of 72 to 75 pounds to make the Top 25 cut and advance to the Knockout Round. After weights reset for the Championship Round, Lucas thinks it will take at least 75 pounds on the final day to claim the first trophy and $125,000 paycheck of the season.
Wall and Lucas were split on whether the unique timing of Stage 1 could give them and the other Guntersville locals in the field a leg up. Wall hopes his experience on the fishery this time of year will mean he has a few extra spots at his disposal during the event. But Lucas doesn’t think there are many secrets left on Guntersville, even in January.
“There might be a little bit of an advantage over, say, REDCREST there in April,” he said. “But not really. It’s Guntersville – everyone has already been there so many times, and there’s so many fish from one end of the lake to the other. It’s really hard to have a local advantage there, in my opinion.”
Keep up with the action
Fans can keep up with the results in real time on SCORETRACKER® and watch all four days of the event live on the MLFNOW! livestream from 7:30 a.m. to 4 p.m. CT each day. You can access the stream at MajorLeagueFishing.com, the MLF and MyOutdoorTV apps and the Major League Fishing channel on Rumble.