Morning predictions starting to prove correct on Day 2
BIRMINGHAM, Ala. – There was something in the air Friday morning at Lay Lake as Bass Pro Shops REDCREST Powered by OPTIMA Lithium began its second day of competition, and it wasn’t just the impending weather. The field of 50 anglers had plenty of thoughts and questions about what lay ahead for today’s competition and the rest of the week.
The three hottest topics were the weather and how bad it might get on Day 2 – clearly, it got bad – whether the shallow anglers would have a fighting chance and what it would take to advance to Saturday’s Knockout Round.
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Can the shallow bite become a more significant factor?
Andy Montgomery, one of the best in the game at fishing shallow targets, struggled the first day with one fish that put him in last place.
“My prediction is that forward-facing sonar for spotted bass in the middle of the lake will dominate,” he said with a chuckle. “I think those guys got too big of a lead for largemouth to play a role today.”
Other anglers surveyed were more optimistic about the shallow bite due to the warming water temperatures and impending front.
“The water has come up a few degrees every day, and it’s spring with weather coming in,” Brent Ehrler said. “That’s the perfect storm for those shallow fish to bite, but overall, they should bite better for everybody.”
Matt Stefan is the “bubble boy” in 20th place and expects better fishing shallow. “The temperatures never really dropped much last night, and I think a lot more fish moved up shallow and got positioned better,” he predicted. “That could get them snapping.”
A guru with forward-facing sonar, Spencer Shuffield expected a lot of movement on SCORETRACKER® today.
“There are already a lot of fish on beds, and I believe there was a bigger push up shallow last night because it was so warm,” he said. “I think the shallow guys will catch them better today, I really do. We’ll see the weights about the same, but it’ll be many of the shallow guys catching them and some offshore guys dropping off.”
Through one period, a couple anglers have managed to find a shallow bite — most notably Chris Lane, who reset the Berkley Big Bass bar with a 7-pounder — but anglers chasing spotted bass offshore or in heavy current have still accounted for most of the catches.
What’s it going to take to advance?
Stefan began the day holding the 20th spot with 20-11. That roughly 20-pound average is the standard guess to advance. Stefan thinks a duplicate day would give him a shot but not guarantee a Knockout Round appearance.
“Forty-two pounds would be pretty safe, is my guess, and you’d have a shot if you could have 40 pounds over two days,” he predicted.
Ehrler had a similar guess: “I think 20 a day is good and will be enough, but it may take 42 over two days because we have a lot of rain coming that could help the bite.”
Montgomery also thinks 40 pounds is the magic number and knows he has his work cut out for him.
“I have catch 37 pounds to catch up and have a chance to move on, but it’s possible here on this lake,” he said.
The first period indicates that 40-pound prediction could be spot on. The cut line moved 6 pounds in the opening frame, from 20-11 to 26-11, but that did include about a 30-minute window during which a line of thunderstorms hit the lake and the bite shut off.
Reigning Fishing Clash Angler of the Year Matt Becker, meanwhile, had a more optimistic outlook. He caught 22-9 to settle in at 17th after Day 1 and expects he’ll need to catch at least that much today to advance.
“I feel like I’ll need to catch at least 25 to stay in it,” he predicted. “I think the cut weight will go up a few pounds. They should bite much better with this weather, and you’ll have to catch them today. If you can get past today and advance, I think it will be a slugfest this weekend with more current on the way.”