In the face of change, the right decisions will determine the top-10 cut on the Illinois River
SPRING VALLEY, Ill. – If the intemperate weather and a diminished bite are any indication of what’s in store for the last 20 men standing on the Wal-Mart RCL Walleye Tour, day three is going to demand an extra measure of precision and added attention to the tricks of the river trade. In other words, in spite of plenty of practice and two days of adjusting on the fly, the competitors who made the cut will not only have to repeat what they’ve already done but also continue to unravel the influences of ever-changing conditions.
“Maybe all the zigging and zagging I did the last two days helped me out,” says Ranger pro Keith Eshbaugh of West Alexander, Pa., the first-place finisher who starts from scratch with zero – and everyone else – on day three. “I’m going to have to remember that and figure things out again today.”
To lead the field with 36 pounds, Eshbaugh handlined a stretch of river between an area locally known as the “clam beds” and an inlet named Negro Creek, where Eshbaugh believes he aggravated nonfeeding saugers with turns in his trolling passes and baits smack in the fishes’ faces. Although the first day was blessed with sun and a strong bite and day two followed with wind, calm, rain and a few rays, conditions are in a downward spiral – hence the necessity for continuous adjustment.
“It’s going to be 60 today and in the 50s tomorrow, and if my theory is right about why the fish are biting my baits, my bite should continue,” Eshbaugh says.
Likewise, 10th-place Ranger pro Carl Grunwaldt of Green Bay, Wis., says he expects the action to keep on keeping on with fewer anglers and further tactical refinements.
“I think we’re going to see bigger weights due to the fact so many guys have had so much time to fine-tune their programs,” Grunwaldt says. “Therefore, I don’t care about the weather. I think it’s going to take 14 or 15 pounds to make the (top-10) cut. I wouldn’t be surprised if a couple of guys come in with more than 20 pounds.”
Grunwaldt is trolling a bend in the river with leadcore line and No. 5 Rapala Shad Raps in a variety of colors, knocking bottom at least half the time with his baits – a powerful trigger in river fisheries. Even if Grunwaldt is a self-admitted one-method man – a troller – the technique has paid off for two days in a row after a tough practice session.
“I’m a troller by nature,” Grunwaldt says. “I pretty much seek it out. But it took me till Monday to figure it out. For three of five days, I was looking forward to the next event.”
Looking forward to day three and perhaps day four is jig laureate and Crestliner pro Scott Fairbairn of Hager City, Wis. Fairbairn made the cut, in 18th place, jigging and hopscotching his way around multiple spots on the river, one of them within a rod’s distance of a parked barge where the bottom dips into a little hole that holds quality saugers. With some forecasting of his own, Fairbairn predicts it will take 12 pounds to make the day-three cut.
“It depends on how long the front holds off before really coming in,” Fairbairn says. “If it does hold off, it’s going to be a pretty good morning.”
Shortly before the 7 a.m. takeoff, Fairbairn was considering trolling with leadcore and crankbaits in the afternoon at brisk paces of 3 mph or more, a strategy that gains momentum as the day wears on and the fish are more scattered. Now, if the competitors zig when they should have zagged, they might not make the right decisions to power into the top 10. But if they do, they’ll have an extra arrow in their quiver to nail down just what it takes to get the fish to go on the final day.
The top 20 boats are due in at 3 p.m. at the Spring Valley Boat Club, and weigh-in will begin shortly thereafter at the Wal-Mart at 1650 38th St. in Peru about a quarter-mile south of Interstate 80 from exit 75.
Thursday’s conditions
Sunrise: 5:32 a.m.
Temperature at takeoff: 43 degrees, with light drizzle
Expected high temperature: 55-60 degrees
Water temperature: 53 degrees
Wind: from the northeast at 13 mph
Relative humidity: 87 percent
Day’s outlook: showers and thunderstorms; chance of rain 90 percent
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