OK, so you picked Bryan Thrift for your Lake Norman team, and he didn’t even have the decency to cash a check let alone earn you some big bonus points for a top-10. I know your pain, but let me warn you against reactionary black-listing.
First off, maybe you can take some solace in knowing that there are many, many others feeling the sting right now. Every single one of us FLW Fantasy Fishing pundits picked Thrift for Norman; a heaping 44 percent of Player’s Advantage members tagged the North Carolinian; and more than one in 10 Fantasy Fishing players overall drafted him for the National Guard Open.
And there’s no doubt that Thrift was a way-solid pick – at least in theory. The Player’s Advantage tool Lake-Angler Matchup – which matches an angler’s style and preferences to how a lake fishes – had Thrift squarely in the No. 1 slot for Norman; the Power Points function ranked him a strong 12th; and the guy only lives 39 miles from Lake Norman.
So what happened? At the risk of sounding flippant, it doesn’t really matter. Lake Norman is now part of 2009’s past. All pros can have subpar tournaments, even on their home lakes and when expectations flow the other way.
In other words, Thrift might just be a decent pick for Beaver Lake, even if he’s on your naughty list for the moment. Sixty percent of pundits have him on their Beaver teams; Lake-Angler Matchup ranks him No. 11; and he placed a solid 15th there last year.
This blog isn’t meant to be an endorsement of Thrift as a hot pick for Beaver Lake. But his case is a good example of when it might be smarter to forgive and forget when a pro underperforms: You may want to seek revenge by purposefully leaving him off your rosters for upcoming events, but A) he’ll never know, and B) you may be missing the boat.
My colleague and fellow Fantasy Fishing pundit Brett Carlson just related a story from earlier this season that illustrates. He picked white-hot pro Brent Ehrler for the season opener at Lake Guntersville. Ehrler turned in a solid 11th-place performance, but Carlson was miffed because he missed out on big bonus points that would have come from a top-10 finish. So Ehrler was conspicuously cut from Carlson’s team for stop No. 2 at Table Rock, and guess what? That’s right – Carlson missed out on a sixth-place power play from Ehrler.
I got my nose rubbed in it last season when I kicked off my 2008 picks with pros Glenn Browne and Greg Pugh for Lake Toho; they ended up placing a disappointing 30th and 72nd, respectively, so I dropped them from consideration for event No. 2. At Lewis Smith Lake, they placed ninth and fifth, followed by fourth- and fifth-place finishes at No. 3 Lake Norman. So “getting mad” at my pros did nothing for me but leave me out in the cold for two events in a row while other pundits and players just kept cashing in on those guys.
If you do the research and think a pro won’t do well in a given tourney, don’t pick him. But don’t reflexively cut pros from your roster just because they had a misstep at an event where you thought they’d excel and you got peeved; if they’re highly skilled, there’s a decent chance they’ll be the ones seeking revenge – on the fish.